Monday, October 6, 2008

My Election Prediction

We're now less than a month from the presidential election. Thank Heaven.

Now it's my time to predict the winner:

Obama/Biden, by a margin of at least 5 to 8 points in the popular vote, and ample margin in the Electoral College.


1) The economy. Everyone is getting hammered by this, but it's going to hurt Republicans more. As evidenced by market turmoil, the bailout -- now totalling more than $800 billion -- is not going to cure the crisis. Perhaps a one-bill cure-all is impossible. But guilt by association is going to fall on the free-market, deregulatory Republicans, including McCain.

2) Palin. McCain and other Republicans spent many a fine hour hammering away at Obama's lack of experience. Though I noted at first that McCain's pick of Palin was shrewd, it's evident that the lacquer has worn off. A Republican feminist pick may play well with the base, but the undecideds (like me) aren't as thrilled. And her presence in the campaign has given the Democrats (and the Democratic-leaning media, let's face it) more fuel.

3) The Democrats. After eight years of Bush and what looks like, to them, the possibility of another similar four years with McCain, the Democratic base is riled up to an extreme. This riling is also going to influence voters in swing states and undecideds like myself.

4) Republicans' shying from the media. I'll be the first to say that all media is biased. Most of it leans Democratic. But avoiding the press and fleeing to Fox News is going to make the Republicans look scared. Which they probably are. Which they're right to be, because they're losing this election.

5) My raise. A measly 87 cents this year, though, bless her, our administrator is pushing for more. While the extra $68 every two weeks will be welcome, it won't dig us out of the hole gas and food prices have dropped us into this year. I'm just glad our mortgage is a reasonable one, and that we didn't buy more than we could afford. We'd like a vacation this year. Can't afford one. We've lost thousands in the stock market, and only had thousands invested. McCain is starting to sound like the same old thing. I'm ready to give Obama/the Democrats a chance. They seemed to do pretty well pulling the country out of the Depression.

6) Reublican overreliance on moral issues/the Iraq war as reasons they should stay in office. I am a moral person. But as a moral person, it's my opinion that the country has more pressing needs than someone who'll rattle sabres about Roe V. Wade if they're elected. That's not going to go anywhere anyway, so why bother? I want to hear from the candidates what they're going to do to end the Iraq war. I'm not convinced a victory a la World War II is possible.

I look forward to people who can refute these arguments. Now's your chance. Because I'm a voter who can't take this any more.

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